[Intro here should talk about it being a virus that is extremely transmissible (because asymptomatic people can spread it) and horrible in its effects on the elderly (i.e., what it does to one’s lungs, the damage that ventilators do to older people)…]
(1) The White House task force needs more expertise and authority
Who are the economics experts? Mnuchin is a fucking movie producer (and of lousy movies, demonstrating his horrible judgment)! Who is the expert in supply chain management? (Does Jared Kushner even know what that is, and that the military is great at it?)
(2) We need a national program of statistically-reliable randomized testing
We still have no idea what the true prevalence of Covid-19 is in the general population, since most of the testing is being done on people who already feel sick. (Why aren’t Fauci and Brix arguing for this? (And does Adams have any expertise on or say in this matter?)) If the federal government won’t do it, why can’t a state? (Side question: Who are the best science/medicine/economics experts working at the state level? Have I heard that Illinois has one?)
(3) We should demand serious, trustworthy daily briefings
Enough with the daily afternoon “The Trump Self-Aggrandizing and Blame-Shifting Show” (SABS)! As Peter Nichols writes in The Atlantic (here):. “The purpose of these should be to provide factual, important information to people in a crisis—information they can trust,” says David Lapan, a former Trump-administration spokesperson at the Department of Homeland Security. “That gets diluted when they turn these into mini rallies.” [Find the WSJ editorial (Fri. 4/10) in which they recommend a daily 30-minute briefing hosted by Pence.] Perhaps this website should be designed for journalists, urging them to urge their White House correspondent peers to ask more helpful questions more aggressively.
(4) The stimulus program is ill-designed and needs to be modified
For the $1,200 “stimulus” checks, the vast majority of them are going to people who have NOT been laid off from their jobs. And, okay, if people spent those checks right now, it would be good for the economy– but right now (except for Amazon, Target, and Walmart) there’s almost nowhere to spend the money on at the moment! Stores are closed, restaurants are closed, it doesn’t make any sense to book travel, you can’t buy most personal services… This was like a $330B boondoggle! And guess who’s going to end up paying for it? The same people who got the checks, just a year or two from now! As for the corporate welfare program… [We gave Boeing $30B to help them recover from their 737 errors?] As for the PPP program… Are the dollar amounts being discussed at all reasonable in size compared to the size of the market need, or are a random 20%(?) of small businesses going to get huge checks and all others nothing?
(5) Trump’s behavior and decision-making should be seen through the lens of his personality disorder
Trump’s narcissistic antics are usually, if one doesn’t take them too seriously, charismatic and entertaining — but they’re not what we need in a time of crisis. Our parents’ lives are at risk; the survival of the companies we work for is at risk; America’s supply chains for food and medicine are at risk. Further down the road, the lives of tens of millions of people in developing countries are at risk… If Trump’s problem was severe alcoholism and he was making critical decisions every day while blind drunk on bourbon, journalists would consider that fair game to write about. In Trump’s case, he’s making critical decisions every day while blind drunk on pathological egotism, and that only gets mentioned in the opinion columns?
(6) We need clearer guidance on staying-at-home rules from our government officials
So many of rules make no sense. For example: There is no need to wash your hands repeatedly if you’re sitting on your sofa at home watching Netflix. You do not need to stay six feet apart from the people in your household; it just probably won’t work. It’s hard to imagine why going for a drive in your private car should be a risk factor (for you or anyone else). It doesn’t make sense that you can run and walk on a beach (assuming you maintain the six-foot distance from others) but cannot sit or lie down. (Does being vertical prevent coronavirus transmission?) Most people still don’t understand that masks are to protect others from you, not vice versa. Shouldn’t grocery stores be required to have lots of hand sanitizer for their customers? To encourage the populace to exercise, rather than shutting down walking trails, couldn’t they be made one-way? Why is it a Covid-19 threat for a one-man landscaping operation to drive to a house and mow its lawn? Are the cooks at a local restaurant (i.e., one serving take-out and delivery) required to wear cloth masks?
(7) Small business owners need more guidance
If I am applying for a PPP “loan” (actually a grant) (as I am), do I need to keep everyone on payroll during the application weeks even if my business is largely closed? Can I let people go during the application process but hire them back for eight weeks once my loan is funded? If so, what happens at the end of the eight weeks? Could I let a $100K/year employee go but hire three $33K/year employees, if I felt that was what the business (and/or our society) could use more right now? One of the PPP requirements is that revenues have to be down 30%, but my banker doesn’t know if that’s cash- or accrual-basis. Why did a higher percentage of companies in the midwest get funding in the first round but a low percentage of companies in the NE and SW did? (Small banks could handle it but big banks were paralyzed?) Arrrghh! (Also, political question: Is it true that Mnuchin or Pence let huge restaurant and hotel chains sneak into this program by being allowed to claim that each of their locations is a separate, small business, taking available funds away from real small businesses?)
(8) We need a PLAN for how to reopen the country
Actually, I believe I caught Gavin Newsom’s plans for California on 4/14. (See appendix below.) But… Do certain types of businesses get opened first? Do young people get released first? Do senior citizens stay under shelter-at-home orders longer than anyone else? We must have others in our library of news stories…. But who’s going to do this? A confederation of three West Coast governors? And/or a different confederation of ten East Coast governors? And with no useful input from the feds?
(9) Point of curiosity: Why is Biden sidelining himself?
Isn’t he missing a perfect opportunity to take a leadership position, perhaps convening his choices for his cabinet, and/or organizing a team of top governors? It seems like a wasted opportunity. Instead, it seems like he’s hiding in his basement…
(10) Why are America’s billionaires sitting on the sidelines?
Aren’t they the logical people to spearhead an effort to save our economy? (Hey, idea: Couldn’t either billionaires or the federal government offer to value any U.S. business at 2x revenues and offer the equivalent of a half-year’s revenues in exchange for 25% of the equity? Seems better than the feds throwing around free gift money that will only last eight weeks…) Aren’t they smart enough to see the value of randomized testing, and rich enough to be able to help fund it?
(11) Other great ideas from Michelle’s manifesto of ~4/10
(A) Offer free antibody screening in exchange for a blood donation. (2) We need more testing of therapeutics — why not let people sign waivers to permit mass distributions/testing? (3) We need a decision tree for business openings. (E.g., in which phase can restaurants offer outdoor seating at separated tables? When can dry cleaners open vs. nail salons? (4) Try to solve the food supply crisis — food is being destroyed at the farm level while people are hungry at the food bank level… (5) The libs are just complaining about Trump, et al., rather than trying to MacGuyver some helpful solutions! (6) Use polling places for mass testing?
(12) Isn’t there an incipient risk of horrible mass deaths in developing countries?
Doesn’t seem like anyone is thinking that far ahead…
(13) Thoughts on NYC
It’s one of our most ethnically-diverse cities… It’s one of our most-packed… It has the greatest reliance on crowded public transportation… It’s home to the U.S.’s biggest international airports… Also, I’ve read some articles about how most of the cases in NY State are really in NYC, as if that says something — but what? Most of Spain’s cases are in the Madrid province, etc.; cases are greater in areas of big population, high population density, high use of public transportation, ethnic diversity…
(14) Thoughts on vectors
I’m reading an article in the Palo Alto News (here) about their random-ish antibodies test, and a commenter asks, “Why is the West Coast doing so much better than the East Coast?” Good question! Possible answers: (1) U.S. cases arrived largely from Europe (e.g., JFK), not Asia (e.g., LAX). (2) Population density is greater in East Coast cities than West Coast cities. (3) On average, West Coast people tend to drive cars; East Coast people tend to take public transportation.(4) Stay-at-home orders were issued relatively earlier in Covid-19’s spread in the West than the East. (For my money, I like explanation #3 most.)
(14) So what does this mean for CoronavirusWatch.com?
What useful purpose could it serve (if any)? (A) I feel we could’ve done a really good job of creating an infographic about masks and social distancing rules — or by curating the best infographic(s) from various cities and states and countries. (B) Our new data tables seem great — no other source that I know of combines both trends AND per-capita information. (C) Purpose of website: “Okay, libs, quit grousing and start being part of the solution!” (D) Providing analysis from experts (and data) on the likelihood of this fall’s second wave — and what to do about it. (E) Focus on what’s working in various countries, states, and cities. (How is Sweden’s approach doing? What are the results of Germany’s experiment with [whatever]?) (F) Showcase a board of experts (i.e., people we read and like) and their opinions on key topics. (G) Try to influence (at least indirectly somehnow) swing voters in swing states to not believe the Trump bullshit to help insure a Biden election in November. (H) Get practice (and a starting mailing list) for launching Climate Watch in early 2021.
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Appendix: Newsom’s plan (or criteria, I’m not sure):
- Expand testing and tracing
- (Something about homeless and other disadvantaged segments of society…)
- Hospitals ready for surges (PPE, ICUs)
- Research on therapeutics
- Re-draw floor plans — more physical distance in restaurants, offices, parks
- Prepare to toggle from looser to stricter as necessary
